Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
1 observations · 32 resolution risks
VERIFICATION QUEUERanked checks before you trust the price.
Full research queue Recommended next check
Start here: Verify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings1Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolves in 32h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
3Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolves in 32h — verify the source
Verify
4Knicks vs. Spurs
Resolves in 8h — verify the source
Verify
5Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
ACTIVE VERIFICATION TARGET
Active target: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
52% 3.0pp
24h volume
$259.9K
Verification target0% current0-54% 7D range-50.0pp net move
73%55%36%18%0%
0%
Jun 50%-50.0pp from start
Jun 3Jun 4Jun 4Jun 4Jun 4Jun 4Jun 4Jun 5
WHY THIS IS ACTIVE
Orrery is prioritizing this market because price movement, volume, and evidence context make it worth checking before reading the price as information.
3.0pp24h move$259.9K24h volumeVerifysource and settlement path
EVIDENCE ACTIONS
All signals 1Open
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Queue proof
24h Δ 3.0pp, 1h Δ 1.0pp · Turnover 2.4× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
High
High
High
High
High
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5?UMA PENDING
High
High
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
High
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio NavaUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya AstakhovaUMA PENDING
High
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 71/84 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 5, 2026
Read full brief - US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? probability down 3.0pp on $1.2M of 24h volume.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 71% evidence — verify on the market.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs resolves in 4h — verify the source before treating as research.
WATCHLIST DELTA
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