Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
4 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 69h — verify the source
Verify
2Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
3US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 69h — verify the source
Verify
4Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
5Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
37% 16.5pp
24h volume
$234.7K
Orrery Pulse76% current75-76% 7D range-0.5pp net move
84%80%76%71%67%
76%
May 2876%-0.5pp from start
May 26May 26May 26May 26May 27May 27May 27May 28
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open 2Open 3Open 4Open
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Top read
24h Δ -16.5pp, 1h Δ -3.0pp · Turnover 2.9× liquidity
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
24h Δ 4.0pp, 1h Δ 0.4pp · Turnover 2.5× liquidity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ -5.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 1.3× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
24h Δ -6.0pp · 1h Δ 1.0pp
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago SkyUMA PENDING
High
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles DodgersPAST EVENT
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Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersPAST EVENT
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Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFirePAST EVENT
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Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5PAST EVENT
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Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)PAST EVENT
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Hurricanes vs. CanadiensPAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 95/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 74/82 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 69/90 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 71 | 52/87 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 28, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? probability down 21.5pp on $0.8M of 24h volume.
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Thunder vs. Spurs resolves in 22h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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