US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

1. 1

   Down 10pp over 24h

   Now 33¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Divergence signal firing

   Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +2.0pp vs. 24h -10.0pp.

3. 3

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1566h with open resolution ambiguity.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.