Resolves in 5h — verify the source
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Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue Verify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
13% 10.3pp
24h volume
$441.0K
Orrery Pulse18% current2-72% 7D range+1.8pp net move
95%71%47%24%0%
18%
May 2618%+1.8pp from start
May 19May 20May 21May 22May 23May 24May 25May 26
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 91/95 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 83/80 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 78/81 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 77/83 86/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 79 | 95/76 50/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 26, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? probability down 15.5pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage resolves in 5h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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