What is the current Polymarket probability for "MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?"?

As of Wed, 06 May 2026 08:53:49 GMT, YES is priced at 13% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 1, 2026. Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$55.9K traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $55.9K. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $37.8K.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/microstrategy-sells-any-bitcoin-by-may-31-2026 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/microstrategy-sells-any-bitcoin-by-may-31-2026/markdown.

CryptoExpires Jul 1, 2026

Creator

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Probability

13¢

-3.5pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$55.9K

Liquidity

$37.8K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jul 1, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

May 6, 2026, 01:00May 6, 2026, 08:53

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T08-53Z

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jul 1, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 1339.1h
LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket

Resolution & Risk

Probability (last 7 days)

Resolution & Risk

Timeline

Recent Trades

Related Markets

Market Description

Alerts

Top Holders