Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
2 observations · 32 resolution risks
VERIFICATION QUEUERanked checks before you trust the price.
Full research queue Recommended next check
Start here: Verify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings1Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolves in 32h — verify the source
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2Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolves in 32h — verify the source
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3Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
4Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?
Momentum observation
Momentum
5Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
ACTIVE VERIFICATION TARGET
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?HIGH EVIDENCE
Active target: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
95% 34.0pp
24h volume
$283.0K
Verification target51% current46-54% 7D range+0.5pp net move
58%54%50%46%41%
51%
Jun 251%+0.5pp from start
May 31May 31May 31Jun 1Jun 1Jun 1Jun 2Jun 2
WHY THIS IS ACTIVE
Orrery is prioritizing this market because price movement, volume, and evidence context make it worth checking before reading the price as information.
34.0pp24h move$283.0K24h volumeVerifysource and settlement path
EVIDENCE ACTIONS
All signals 1Open
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?Queue proof
24h Δ 34.0pp, 1h Δ 5.0pp · Turnover 10.3× liquidity
2Open
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
24h Δ 3.0pp, 1h Δ 1.0pp · Turnover 2.4× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
High
High
High
High
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio NavaUMA PENDING
High
High
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya AstakhovaUMA PENDING
High
High
High
Medium
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 95/74 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 73 | 71/84 60/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 5, 2026
Read full brief - Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? probability up 34.0pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? resolves in 0h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (2)
IGNORE (0)
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