High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Resolves in 7h — verify the source
Verify
2Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Resolves in 7h — verify the source
Verify
3LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
4US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 7h — verify the source
Verify
5Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro TabiloHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
6% 12.0pp
24h volume
$874.4K
Orrery Pulse0% current0-50% 7D range-22.9pp net move
67%50%34%17%0%
0%
May 300%-22.9pp from start
May 29May 29May 29May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin LandaluceTop read
24h Δ -11.0pp, 1h Δ -30.0pp · Turnover 20.6× liquidity
2Open
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo
24h Δ -12.0pp, 1h Δ -19.0pp · Turnover 11.0× liquidity
3Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -8.9pp, 1h Δ -0.4pp · Turnover 11.9× liquidity
4Open
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -16.0pp · Turnover 4.6× liquidity
5Open
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon
24h Δ -3.0pp, 1h Δ -17.0pp · Turnover 7.4× liquidity
6Open
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys
24h Δ -3.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 3.0× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
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Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)EXPIRED
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 91/82 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/84 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 79 | 74/84 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 77 | 71/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? probability down 36.5pp on $0.7M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- World Championships: Canada vs. Finland resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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WATCHLIST DELTA
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