High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?
Resolves in 58h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Resolves in 6h — verify the source
Verify
4Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik
Momentum observation
Momentum
5Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub MensikHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
12% 65.0pp
24h volume
$946.6K
Orrery Pulse100% current51-100% 7D range+49.0pp net move
100%83%66%50%33%
100%
May 29100%+49.0pp from start
May 28May 28May 28May 28May 28May 29May 29May 29
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak DjokovicTop read
24h Δ 11.0pp, 1h Δ 8.0pp · Turnover 26.4× liquidity
2Open
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik
24h Δ -65.0pp, 1h Δ -69.0pp · Turnover 8.8× liquidity
3Open
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul
24h Δ -14.0pp, 1h Δ -4.0pp · Turnover 4.5× liquidity
4Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ 12.6pp, 1h Δ 0.9pp · Turnover 4.5× liquidity
6Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -6.5pp, 1h Δ -1.5pp · Turnover 5.6× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 95/82 90/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/84 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/84 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 29, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik probability down 65.0pp on $0.9M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs resolves in 5h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
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