High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
3 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
2US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 15h — verify the source
Verify
3US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
4Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
5US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 15h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
17% 11.6pp
24h volume
$867.0K
Orrery Pulse17% current17-49% 7D range-30.5pp net move
54%43%33%22%11%
17%
May 3017%-30.5pp from start
May 23May 24May 25May 26May 27May 28May 29May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Top read
24h Δ -11.6pp, 1h Δ -5.9pp · Turnover 10.0× liquidity
2Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ -5.5pp, 1h Δ -1.8pp · Turnover 5.7× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 95/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 79/78 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 72 | 53/92 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? probability down 11.6pp on $0.9M of 24h volume.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 resolves in 5h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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