High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
3US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 15h — verify the source
Verify
4Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
5US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja ChwalinskaHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
59% 13.5pp
24h volume
$255.6K
Orrery Pulse49% current49-86% 7D range-1.5pp net move
92%80%67%54%42%
49%
May 3049%-1.5pp from start
May 29May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -10.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 16.2× liquidity
2Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -11.2pp, 1h Δ -5.5pp · Turnover 9.7× liquidity
3Open
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska
24h Δ 13.5pp, 1h Δ 14.5pp · Turnover 4.8× liquidity
4Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ -7.1pp, 1h Δ -3.7pp · Turnover 5.8× liquidity
5Open
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -6.0pp · Turnover 12.4× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 95/83 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 85/79 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 95/79 60/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 85/78 74/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska probability up 13.5pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 resolves in 5h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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