High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
3LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
4US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
5US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas RangersHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
6% 41.0pp
24h volume
$400.5K
Orrery Pulse0% current0-62% 7D range-40.0pp net move
84%63%42%21%0%
0%
May 300%-40.0pp from start
May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Top read
24h Δ -14.0pp, 1h Δ -1.1pp · Turnover 8.4× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
World Championships: Canada vs. FinlandUMA PENDING
High
High
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL PlayoffsUMA PENDING
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
T20 Blast: Sussex vs MiddlesexUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
CR Flamengo vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5UMA PENDING
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 95/84 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 90/90 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/79 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/78 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 95/84 60/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays probability up 52.0pp on $0.6M of 24h volume.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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