High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
4 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Resolves in 7h — verify the source
Verify
2Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Resolves in 7h — verify the source
Verify
3LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
4Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
5US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 7h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
12% 10.0pp
24h volume
$946.3K
Orrery Pulse12% current3-40% 7D range+0.3pp net move
50%37%25%12%0%
12%
May 3012%+0.3pp from start
May 23May 24May 25May 26May 27May 28May 29May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Top read
24h Δ -10.0pp, 1h Δ -1.9pp · Turnover 12.0× liquidity
2Open
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo
24h Δ -14.0pp, 1h Δ -23.0pp · Turnover 8.1× liquidity
3Open
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ -13.5pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 1.2× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
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Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)EXPIRED
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 95/82 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 85/90 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 81/84 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? probability down 38.0pp on $0.7M of 24h volume.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- World Championships: Canada vs. Finland resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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