High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
3 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
2LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
3Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
4Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
5Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
17% 12.5pp
24h volume
$801.8K
Orrery Pulse40% current39-40% 7D range+0.5pp net move
48%44%39%35%31%
40%
May 3040%+0.5pp from start
May 29May 29May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Top read
24h Δ -12.5pp, 1h Δ -1.7pp · Turnover 9.4× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 95/82 94/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 68/80 96/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 72 | 80/80 40/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda probability down 16.0pp on $2.4M of 24h volume.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner resolves in 4h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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