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Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
4Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe
Momentum observation
Momentum
5Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Momentum observation
Momentum
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances TiafoeHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
65% 27.0pp
24h volume
$500.2K
Orrery Pulse0% current0-50% 7D range-50.0pp net move
68%51%34%17%0%
0%
May 300%-50.0pp from start
May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael CollignonTop read
24h Δ 13.0pp, 1h Δ 32.0pp · Turnover 9.9× liquidity
2Open
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe
24h Δ 27.0pp, 1h Δ 26.0pp · Turnover 6.4× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?UMA PENDING
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)UMA PENDING
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten ChampionUMA PENDING
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 95/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/80 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 72 | 53/90 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 69 | 50/82 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe probability up 27.0pp on $0.5M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? resolves in 4h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
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