Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
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5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Momentum observation
Momentum
3Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
4Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
Resolves in 1h — verify the source
Verify
5Spurs vs. Thunder
Resolves in 1h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
85% 42.0pp
24h volume
$283.5K
Orrery Pulse50% current33-50% 7D range+17.0pp net move
53%47%42%36%30%
50%
May 2650%+17.0pp from start
May 26May 26May 26May 26May 26May 26May 26May 26
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open 2Open 3Open 4Open 5Open 6Open
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland GuardiansTop read
24h Δ 42.0pp, 1h Δ 39.0pp · Turnover 5.7× liquidity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ -8.0pp, 1h Δ -5.5pp · Turnover 2.1× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 7.2× liquidity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -6.6pp, 1h Δ -3.4pp · Turnover 4.3× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -6.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 2.3× liquidity
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
24h Δ 5.5pp, 1h Δ 7.5pp · Turnover 5.4× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 83/85 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/78 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 88/89 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 73/89 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 85/80 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 26, 2026
Read full brief - Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians probability up 42.0pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27? resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
RISK INCREASED (3)
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