High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?
Resolves in 57h — verify the source
Verify
3Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
4Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-29?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
5US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak DjokovicHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
57% 23.0pp
24h volume
$4.5M
Orrery Pulse51% current50-51% 7D range+0.5pp net move
59%55%50%46%42%
51%
May 2951%+0.5pp from start
May 28May 28May 28May 28May 29May 29May 29May 29
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak DjokovicTop read
24h Δ 23.0pp, 1h Δ 24.0pp · Turnover 44.8× liquidity
2Open
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong
24h Δ -65.0pp, 1h Δ -14.0pp · Turnover 21.8× liquidity
3Open
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul
24h Δ -43.0pp, 1h Δ -24.0pp · Turnover 11.1× liquidity
4Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -8.0pp, 1h Δ -2.5pp · Turnover 5.6× liquidity
5Open
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?
24h Δ -9.4pp, 1h Δ -9.4pp · Turnover 5.1× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
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Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 95/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/80 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 88/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 80/82 82/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 29, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong probability down 65.0pp on $1.6M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? resolves in 5h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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