High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?
Resolves in 58h — verify the source
Verify
4Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-29?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
5Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak DjokovicHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
49% 14.0pp
24h volume
$4.1M
Orrery Pulse50% current50-51% 7D range+0.0pp net move
59%55%50%46%42%
50%
May 2950%+0.0pp from start
May 28May 28May 28May 28May 29May 29May 29May 29
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak DjokovicTop read
24h Δ 14.0pp, 1h Δ 25.0pp · Turnover 75.9× liquidity
2Open
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul
24h Δ -15.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 5.0× liquidity
3Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ 10.9pp, 1h Δ 0.9pp · Turnover 4.6× liquidity
4Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -8.0pp, 1h Δ -1.5pp · Turnover 5.9× liquidity
5Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 7.6× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 95/82 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/79 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 88/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 85/85 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 29, 2026
Read full brief - Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? probability down 19.0pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs resolves in 4h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
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