High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs
Resolves in 6h — verify the source
Verify
2Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
3US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 54h — verify the source
Verify
4Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
5Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 54h — verify the source
Verify
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ 9.5pp, 1h Δ 2.5pp · Turnover 14.7× liquidity
4Open
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 3.2× liquidity
6Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -3.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 3.6× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Diane ParryUMA PENDING
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 80/98 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 93/80 60/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 74/89 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 79 | 72/89 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 78 | 71/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 28, 2026
Read full brief - Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox probability down 11.5pp on $0.6M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 93% evidence — verify on the market.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 resolves in 5h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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