Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
2Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
3Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Nikola Bartunkova
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
4Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
5Spurs vs. Thunder
Resolves in 6h — verify the source
Verify
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open 2Open 3Open 4Open 5Open 6Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -12.5pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 5.2× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -7.5pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 2.6× liquidity
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
24h Δ -6.5pp, 1h Δ -0.7pp · Turnover 4.9× liquidity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -5.0pp, 1h Δ -0.3pp · Turnover 4.5× liquidity
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
24h Δ 4.3pp, 1h Δ 0.2pp · Turnover 1.6× liquidity
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -1.3pp · 1h Δ 1.8pp
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 95/80 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 86/85 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 83/80 88/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 78/84 92/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 70/90 98/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 26, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? probability down 12.5pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage resolves in 5h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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