High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?
Resolves in 55h — verify the source
Verify
3Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
4US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 27h — verify the source
Verify
5US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Resolves in 3h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
67% 14.0pp
24h volume
$379.4K
Orrery Pulse83% current69-83% 7D range+14.5pp net move
86%81%76%71%66%
83%
May 2983%+14.5pp from start
May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Top read
24h Δ 14.0pp, 1h Δ 1.2pp · Turnover 5.4× liquidity
2Open
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
24h Δ 20.1pp, 1h Δ 1.4pp · Turnover 1.2× liquidity
5Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ 5.5pp, 1h Δ 3.1pp · Turnover 10.9× liquidity
6Open
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev
24h Δ -5.1pp, 1h Δ -3.0pp · Turnover 5.0× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
High
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5)UMA PENDING
High
High
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 84/89 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/81 84/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 79/81 90/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 81/85 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 81 | 78/84 86/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 29, 2026
Read full brief - Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? probability up 20.1pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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