High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card)
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
3US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 12h — verify the source
Verify
4LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
5US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 12h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
17% 14.8pp
24h volume
$799.7K
Orrery Pulse0% current0-3% 7D range-2.5pp net move
17%13%9%4%0%
0%
May 300%-2.5pp from start
May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 30May 30May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -11.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 14.2× liquidity
2Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -14.8pp, 1h Δ -0.9pp · Turnover 9.3× liquidity
6Open
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce
24h Δ 3.0pp, 1h Δ 2.0pp · Turnover 0.8× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 95/82 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 81/83 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 80 | 80/81 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 74 | 61/81 88/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? probability down 14.8pp on $0.8M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs resolves in 4h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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