High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 13h — verify the source
Verify
2LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
3US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 13h — verify the source
Verify
4Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
5US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 13h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi OsakaHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
24% 25.0pp
24h volume
$1.1M
Orrery Pulse1% current1-20% 7D range-18.7pp net move
26%19%13%6%0%
1%
May 301%-18.7pp from start
May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 30May 30May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -11.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 14.7× liquidity
2Open
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka
24h Δ -25.0pp, 1h Δ -19.0pp · Turnover 14.1× liquidity
3Open
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska
24h Δ -39.0pp, 1h Δ -80.0pp · Turnover 9.1× liquidity
4Open
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -10.5pp, 1h Δ -2.5pp · Turnover 5.7× liquidity
5Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ -8.0pp, 1h Δ -0.4pp · Turnover 3.9× liquidity
6Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -5.4pp, 1h Δ -1.1pp · Turnover 9.3× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
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Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 88/81 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/80 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 79/82 98/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska probability down 39.0pp on $0.5M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs resolves in 4h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
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