High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
2 observations · 32 resolution risks
VERIFICATION QUEUERanked checks before you trust the price.
Full research queue Recommended next check
Start here: Open Detail and read the resolution source before acting1Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolves in 31h — verify the source
Verify
3Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
4Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolves in 31h — verify the source
Verify
5Knicks vs. Spurs
Resolves in 7h — verify the source
Verify
ACTIVE VERIFICATION TARGET
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Active target: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
11% 4.0pp
24h volume
$1.4M
Verification target0% current0-1% 7D range-0.4pp net move
17%13%9%4%0%
0%
Jun 10%-0.4pp from start
May 30May 30May 30May 31May 31Jun 1Jun 1Jun 1
WHY THIS IS ACTIVE
Orrery is prioritizing this market because price movement, volume, and evidence context make it worth checking before reading the price as information.
4.0pp24h move$1.4M24h volumeVerifysource and settlement path
EVIDENCE ACTIONS
All signals 1Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Queue proof
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 2.2× liquidity
2Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 4.3× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Medium
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Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 74/97 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 79 | 74/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 5, 2026
Read full brief - Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? probability up 21.9pp on $0.2M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 74% evidence — verify on the market.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs resolves in 3h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (2)
IGNORE (0)
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