High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 19h — verify the source
Verify
3Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?
Resolves in 47h — verify the source
Verify
4Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
5US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
23% 16.9pp
24h volume
$934.9K
Orrery Pulse35% current35-54% 7D range-19.0pp net move
57%50%44%38%31%
35%
May 3035%-19.0pp from start
May 28May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 30May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -11.5pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 15.4× liquidity
2Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -16.9pp, 1h Δ -2.1pp · Turnover 5.8× liquidity
3Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ -11.0pp, 1h Δ -2.9pp · Turnover 4.3× liquidity
4Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
24h Δ -15.5pp, 1h Δ -2.5pp · Turnover 5.4× liquidity
5Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
24h Δ -11.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 1.8× liquidity
6Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -6.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 3.5× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 95/81 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/87 82/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 92/88 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 81/90 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? probability down 16.9pp on $0.9M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? resolves in 11h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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