High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 14h — verify the source
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 14h — verify the source
Verify
5US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 14h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
17% 11.1pp
24h volume
$869.0K
Orrery Pulse0% current0-49% 7D range-48.9pp net move
67%50%33%17%0%
0%
May 300%-48.9pp from start
May 28May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 30May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -11.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 16.2× liquidity
2Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -11.1pp, 1h Δ -1.7pp · Turnover 9.8× liquidity
3Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ -8.0pp, 1h Δ -4.5pp · Turnover 5.5× liquidity
4Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -6.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 2.7× liquidity
5Open
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska
24h Δ 4.0pp, 1h Δ 5.0pp · Turnover 5.1× liquidity
6Open
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -3.5pp, 1h Δ -3.5pp · Turnover 5.9× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 95/82 90/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 88/79 88/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 81/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 77 | 74/79 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? probability down 11.1pp on $0.9M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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