High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 1h — verify the source
Verify
3Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Momentum observation
Momentum
4Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
5US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
9% 34.3pp
24h volume
$381.4K
Orrery Pulse15% current4-50% 7D range-35.1pp net move
63%47%32%16%0%
15%
May 3015%-35.1pp from start
May 24May 25May 26May 27May 28May 29May 30May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Top read
24h Δ -12.3pp, 1h Δ -2.3pp · Turnover 8.0× liquidity
2Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
24h Δ -18.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 5.0× liquidity
4Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ -3.9pp, 1h Δ -4.1pp · Turnover 3.4× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas RangersUMA PENDING
High
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesUMA PENDING
High
High
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansUMA PENDING
High
Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsUMA PENDING
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
T20 Blast: Sussex vs MiddlesexUMA PENDING
High
San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsUMA PENDING
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosUMA PENDING
High
—
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 95/84 92/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/84 76/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 73/82 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 64/96 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates probability down 34.3pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Spurs vs. Thunder resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
Set up watchlistORRERY PRO
Prediction-market intelligence terminal
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.