Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Spurs vs. Thunder
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
2Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
4Avalanche vs. Golden Knights
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
5US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Momentum observation
Momentum
MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
26% 11.0pp
24h volume
$2.7M
Orrery Pulse57% current50-57% 7D range+7.0pp net move
62%58%53%49%45%
57%
May 2657%+7.0pp from start
May 21May 22May 23May 23May 24May 25May 26May 26
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open 2Open 3Open 4Open 5Open 6Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Top read
24h Δ -11.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 6.6× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -10.0pp, 1h Δ -1.5pp · Turnover 3.5× liquidity
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -10.0pp, 1h Δ -0.4pp · Turnover 2.5× liquidity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -5.3pp, 1h Δ -0.6pp · Turnover 4.9× liquidity
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
24h Δ 4.0pp, 1h Δ 0.1pp · Turnover 1.9× liquidity
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
24h Δ 5.2pp, 1h Δ 0.2pp · Turnover 0.8× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 95/93 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/86 84/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/84 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 79/84 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 72/89 98/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 26, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? probability down 17.0pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27? resolves in 3h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
RISK INCREASED (3)
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