High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
5World Championships: Canada vs. Finland
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White SoxHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
25% 27.0pp
24h volume
$410.8K
Orrery Pulse34% current33-65% 7D range-16.5pp net move
70%59%49%38%27%
34%
May 3034%-16.5pp from start
May 24May 25May 26May 27May 28May 29May 29May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White SoxTop read
24h Δ -27.0pp, 1h Δ -25.0pp · Turnover 3.8× liquidity
2Open
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe
24h Δ 8.5pp, 1h Δ 8.5pp · Turnover 7.9× liquidity
3Open
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -8.0pp · Turnover 8.7× liquidity
4Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -5.7pp, 1h Δ -0.5pp · Turnover 10.0× liquidity
5Open
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ -8.5pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 1.1× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
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Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)EXPIRED
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 95/84 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 85/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 79/90 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 80/83 84/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 90/79 60/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? probability down 31.5pp on $0.7M of 24h volume.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs resolves in 3h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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