Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
2Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 48h — verify the source
Verify
3Spread: Spurs (-3.5)
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 48h — verify the source
Verify
5Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
MARKET PULSE
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
45% 10.0pp
24h volume
$317.1K
Orrery Pulse4% current2-18% 7D range-13.1pp net move
21%15%10%5%0%
4%
May 284%-13.1pp from start
May 28May 28May 28May 28May 28May 28May 28May 28
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 2Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 10.4× liquidity
3Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
24h Δ 4.5pp, 1h Δ 1.5pp · Turnover 9.0× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?UMA PENDING
High
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPAST EVENT
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesPAST EVENT
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Thunder vs. SpursPAST EVENT
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Spread: Spurs (-3.5)PAST EVENT
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Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5PAST EVENT
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Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5PAST EVENT
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Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 95/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 85/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 75 | 76/83 60/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 72 | 56/86 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 69 | 51/84 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 29, 2026
Read full brief - Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? probability up 22.9pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? resolves in 48h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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