High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card)
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 12h — verify the source
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 12h — verify the source
Verify
5Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary SvajdaTop read
24h Δ -64.0pp, 1h Δ -35.0pp · Turnover 28.4× liquidity
2Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
24h Δ -11.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 14.4× liquidity
3Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -14.2pp, 1h Δ -0.7pp · Turnover 9.8× liquidity
4Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -6.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 3.3× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 95/82 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 81/91 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 81/84 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda probability down 64.0pp on $2.5M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs resolves in 3h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
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