High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
4 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 22h — verify the source
Verify
3Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
4Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
5US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 22h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
49% 11.0pp
24h volume
$329.0K
Orrery Pulse39% current27-39% 7D range+11.5pp net move
41%37%33%29%24%
39%
May 3039%+11.5pp from start
May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -11.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 15.5× liquidity
2Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ 11.7pp, 1h Δ 1.3pp · Turnover 5.4× liquidity
3Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
24h Δ -11.0pp, 1h Δ -4.0pp · Turnover 2.2× liquidity
4Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -9.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 4.3× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesUMA PENDING
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
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New York Yankees vs. AthleticsPAST EVENT
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosPAST EVENT
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Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White SoxPAST EVENT
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Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsPAST EVENT
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysPAST EVENT
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Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsPAST EVENT
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Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPAST EVENT
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Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)PAST EVENT
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Canadiens vs. HurricanesPAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 95/82 88/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 91/85 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? probability up 13.6pp on $1.0M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? resolves in 14h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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