High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
3San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
4US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 22h — verify the source
Verify
5Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
68% 13.6pp
24h volume
$429.1K
Orrery Pulse68% current59-68% 7D range+2.5pp net move
72%68%63%59%55%
68%
May 3068%+2.5pp from start
May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -11.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 15.5× liquidity
2Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ 13.3pp, 1h Δ 0.1pp · Turnover 5.8× liquidity
3Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ 13.6pp, 1h Δ 2.3pp · Turnover 5.5× liquidity
4Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -9.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 4.3× liquidity
5Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
24h Δ -9.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 2.1× liquidity
6Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -6.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 4.7× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansUMA PENDING
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
High
New York Yankees vs. AthleticsPAST EVENT
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosPAST EVENT
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Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White SoxPAST EVENT
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Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsPAST EVENT
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysPAST EVENT
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Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsPAST EVENT
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesPAST EVENT
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Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPAST EVENT
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Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)PAST EVENT
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Canadiens vs. HurricanesPAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 95/87 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/81 86/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 91/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 91/85 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? probability up 13.6pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? resolves in 14h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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