High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 15h — verify the source
Verify
4Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
5US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja ChwalinskaHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
59% 13.5pp
24h volume
$255.6K
Orrery Pulse13% current10-14% 7D range-1.5pp net move
21%16%12%8%4%
13%
May 3013%-1.5pp from start
May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Top read
24h Δ -11.6pp, 1h Δ -5.9pp · Turnover 10.0× liquidity
2Open
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska
24h Δ 13.5pp, 1h Δ 14.5pp · Turnover 4.8× liquidity
3Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ -7.1pp, 1h Δ -3.7pp · Turnover 5.8× liquidity
4Open
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -6.0pp · Turnover 12.4× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
—
—
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 95/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 85/79 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 95/79 60/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 85/78 74/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 72 | 53/92 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska probability up 13.5pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 resolves in 5h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
Set up watchlistORRERY PRO
Prediction-market intelligence terminal
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.