Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsUMA PENDING
High
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Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Hurricanes vs. Canadiens
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
3CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 2.5
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
4Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 70h — verify the source
Verify
5US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 70h — verify the source
Verify
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open 2Open 3Open 4Open 5Open 6Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -25.0pp, 1h Δ -2.5pp · Turnover 9.7× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -12.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 3.8× liquidity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
24h Δ -9.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 1.6× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 1.4× liquidity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 1.2× liquidity
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
24h Δ -14.0pp · 1h Δ 1.0pp
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsUMA PENDING
High
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Low
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles DodgersPAST EVENT
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Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersPAST EVENT
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Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFirePAST EVENT
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Hurricanes vs. CanadiensPAST EVENT
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Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5PAST EVENT
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Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)PAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 95/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 87/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 95/82 60/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 77 | 66/90 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 77 | 65/90 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 28, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? probability down 25.0pp on $0.8M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Thunder vs. Spurs resolves in 22h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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