Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
4 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue MARKET PULSE
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
32% 4.0pp
24h volume
$520.9K
Orrery Pulse26% current26-29% 7D range-3.0pp net move
36%32%28%23%19%
26%
May 2026%-3.0pp from start
May 19May 20May 20May 20May 20May 20May 20May 20
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Trump kiss by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Geneva Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alexei PopyrinUMA PENDING
High
High
High
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—
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 74/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 74 | 57/93 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 69 | 51/82 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 68 | 50/81 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 20, 2026
Read full brief - Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? probability up 30.5pp on $0.2M of 24h volume.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24? shows a momentum pattern at 74% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
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