High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 23h — verify the source
Verify
3Canadiens vs. Hurricanes
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
4Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
5Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
26% 13.8pp
24h volume
$1.0M
Orrery Pulse52% current52-53% 7D range+0.0pp net move
61%56%52%48%44%
52%
May 2952%+0.0pp from start
May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Top read
24h Δ 13.8pp, 1h Δ 0.1pp · Turnover 6.0× liquidity
2Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
24h Δ -9.0pp, 1h Δ -4.0pp · Turnover 19.5× liquidity
3Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 4.4× liquidity
4Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 1.9× liquidity
5Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -4.5pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 5.0× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosPAST EVENT
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Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsPAST EVENT
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysPAST EVENT
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Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansPAST EVENT
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Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsPAST EVENT
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesPAST EVENT
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Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPAST EVENT
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Canadiens vs. HurricanesPAST EVENT
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Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)PAST EVENT
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Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsPAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 95/87 74/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 91/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 85/85 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 83/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 76/88 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? probability up 13.8pp on $1.0M of 24h volume.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? resolves in 15h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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