Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
1 observations · 32 resolution risks
VERIFICATION QUEUERanked checks before you trust the price.
Full research queue Recommended next check
Start here: Verify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings1Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolves in 32h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolves in 32h — verify the source
Verify
3Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
4Knicks vs. Spurs
Resolves in 9h — verify the source
Verify
5Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner
Resolves in 3h — verify the source
Verify
ACTIVE VERIFICATION TARGET
Active target: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
52% 3.0pp
24h volume
$261.3K
Verification target51% current51-51% 7D range+0.0pp net move
59%55%51%46%42%
51%
May 3051%+0.0pp from start
May 29May 29May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30May 30
WHY THIS IS ACTIVE
Orrery is prioritizing this market because price movement, volume, and evidence context make it worth checking before reading the price as information.
3.0pp24h move$261.3K24h volumeVerifysource and settlement path
EVIDENCE ACTIONS
All signals 1Open
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Queue proof
24h Δ 3.0pp, 1h Δ 1.5pp · Turnover 2.3× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
High
High
High
High
High
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?UMA PENDING
High
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio NavaUMA PENDING
High
High
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya AstakhovaUMA PENDING
High
High
High
—
—
—
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 71/84 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 5, 2026
Read full brief - US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? probability down 3.0pp on $1.2M of 24h volume.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 71% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? resolves in 0h — verify the source before treating as research.
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
Set up watchlistORRERY PRO
Prediction-market intelligence terminal
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.