Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
4 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
34% 9.0pp
24h volume
$626.6K
Orrery Pulse1% current1-5% 7D range-0.7pp net move
17%13%9%4%0%
1%
May 201%-0.7pp from start
May 13May 14May 15May 16May 17May 18May 19May 20
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersUMA PENDING
High
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysUMA PENDING
High
High
High
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesUMA PENDING
High
New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsUMA PENDING
High
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota TwinsUMA PENDING
High
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-19?UMA PENDING
High
High
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego PadresPAST EVENT
—
Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsPAST EVENT
—
—
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsPAST EVENT
—
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago CubsPAST EVENT
—
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesPAST EVENT
—
São Paulo FC vs. Millonarios FC: O/U 2.5PAST EVENT
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Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-19?PAST EVENT
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Cavaliers vs. KnicksPAST EVENT
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Spread: Knicks (-6.5)PAST EVENT
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Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5PAST EVENT
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Spread: Knicks (-5.5)PAST EVENT
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—
—
—
—
—
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Texas Rangers vs. Colorado RockiesPAST EVENT
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Spread: Knicks (-7.5)PAST EVENT
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Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?PINNED NO
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 91/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 75/96 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 66/95 92/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 69 | 51/82 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 20, 2026
Read full brief - Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? probability up 32.0pp on $0.2M of 24h volume.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24? shows a momentum pattern at 91% evidence — verify on the market.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21? resolves in 22h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
RISK INCREASED (2)
WATCHLIST DELTA
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