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5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
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Full research queue Verify source and settlement before reading price moves as info
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
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MARKET PULSE
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
50% 12.0pp
24h volume
$210.8K
Orrery Pulse0% current0-3% 7D range-2.5pp net move
17%13%9%4%0%
0%
May 200%-2.5pp from start
May 19May 19May 19May 19May 19May 19May 20May 20
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Trump kiss by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)UMA PENDING
High
High
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5UMA PENDING
High
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado RockiesUMA PENDING
High
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)UMA PENDING
High
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsUMA PENDING
High
São Paulo FC vs. Millonarios FC: O/U 2.5UMA PENDING
High
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-19?UMA PENDING
High
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-19?UMA PENDING
High
High
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19?UMA PENDING
High
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego PadresPAST EVENT
—
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersPAST EVENT
—
—
—
Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsPAST EVENT
—
—
—
—
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?PINNED NO
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 95/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 88/85 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 70/89 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 70 | 51/86 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 70 | 51/85 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 20, 2026
Read full brief - Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? probability down 31.0pp on $0.2M of 24h volume.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B resolves in 8h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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