PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 26, 2026

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Probability

56¢

+0.0pp

24h

+2.0pp

24h Vol

$6.1K

Liquidity

$54.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.0pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:36

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors

1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 56¢; flat in the last hour.
2
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $6.1k traded against $54.1k of visible liquidity (0.11× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
3
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 729h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 729.4h
LOW
14:36Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 729h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
1d agoPrice
Probability down -4.0pp
to 55¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -3.5pp
to 56¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -3.5pp
to 56¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -3.5pp
to 56¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -3.5pp
to 56¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 55¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -5.5pp
to 54¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 55¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 55¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -5.0pp
to 55¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -5.5pp
to 55¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -6.0pp
to 55¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -5.0pp
to 56¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 56¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -4.0pp
to 56¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventTexas Republican Senate Primary Winner

Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 26, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not specified in metadata
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket