Geopolitics prediction markets

Geopolitics markets — wars, ceasefires, sanctions, treaties, summits. Ranked by 24h volume.

19 live

updated 07:08:44 UTC·src:Polymarket Gamma

24h volume

$13.6M

Across 19 live markets

Avg volatility

1.5pp

Average |24h move| in this category

Top movers

Markets with |Δ24h| ≥ 5pp

Whale flow

$0.00

0 trades ≥$5k

Source-risk

Markets in active UMA dispute / pending

Resolving <24h

Watch for the settlement print

Market	Prob	Δ24h	Vol 24h	Liq
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	10¢	+2.5	$4.4M	$14.5K
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1¢	-0.8	$2.0M	$620.9K
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	1¢	-0.9	$890.5K	$398.0K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4¢	-1.2	$768.4K	$450.6K
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	1¢	+0.5	$704.9K	$721.2K
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	3¢	+0.9	$640.0K	$65.8K
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1¢	-0.7	$560.8K	$374.2K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8¢	-2.0	$522.4K	$871.0K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	6¢	0.0	$447.0K	$427.0K
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	0¢	0.0	$349.3K	$8.0M
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	7¢	-0.1	$335.5K	$979.7K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	32¢	+1.0	$331.6K	$763.0K
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	30¢	+10.0	$322.4K	$54.5K
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	14¢	+3.0	$265.1K	$81.4K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	14¢	-4.0	$244.6K	$124.7K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	28¢	0.0	$237.1K	$422.4K
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	100¢	-0.1	$226.0K	$81.4K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	5¢	0.0	$221.8K	$640.8K
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3¢	+1.3	$202.4K	$70.7K