updated 21:52:35 UTC·src:Polymarket Gamma

24h volume

$12.5M

Across 21 live markets

Avg volatility

1.0pp

Average |24h move| in this category

Top movers

Markets with |Δ24h| ≥ 5pp

Large-trade flow

$0.00

0 trades ≥$5k

Source-risk

Markets in active UMA dispute / pending

Resolving <24h

Watch for the settlement print

Market	Prob	Δ24h	Vol 24h	Liq
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	5¢	-1.0	$3.1M	$988.3K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	69¢	0.0	$2.2M	$355.0K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	19¢	+2.0	$823.6K	$394.8K
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	100¢	+0.1	$742.8K	$4.7M
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2¢	+0.2	$592.4K	$714.3K
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?	2¢	-1.7	$579.5K	$114.0K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	10¢	0.0	$525.8K	$500.4K
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	100¢	+0.1	$422.3K	$2.4M
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	4¢	+1.4	$400.3K	$143.1K
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	19¢	0.0	$368.7K	$123.4K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	1¢	-2.1	$337.9K	$68.5K
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	21¢	+4.5	$314.9K	$72.3K
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	6¢	+3.4	$305.9K	$92.4K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	43¢	-0.5	$284.9K	$48.5K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	1¢	-0.3	$284.6K	$521.2K
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	11¢	0.0	$239.0K	$64.4K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	10¢	-1.5	$226.1K	$51.8K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	3¢	+0.1	$191.4K	$166.8K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	32¢	+1.0	$189.3K	$222.7K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	20¢	+1.0	$182.6K	$428.3K
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	100¢	0.0	$181.2K	$2.3M