updated 07:51:32 UTC·src:Polymarket Gamma

24h volume

$2.0M

Across 15 live markets

Avg volatility

1.0pp

Average |24h move| in this category

Top movers

Markets with |Δ24h| ≥ 5pp

Large-trade flow

$0.00

0 trades ≥$5k

Source-risk

Markets in active UMA dispute / pending

Resolving <24h

Watch for the settlement print

Market	Prob	Δ24h	Vol 24h	Liq
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	2¢	+0.2	$296.2K	$862.9K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	100¢	+0.2	$283.0K	$198.7K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	0¢	0.0	$233.6K	$2.2M
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	94¢	+1.0	$229.6K	$89.8K
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	2¢	-0.3	$205.3K	$124.1K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	19¢	-1.0	$152.1K	$117.5K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?	8¢	-5.0	$139.8K	$55.2K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	45¢	0.0	$88.0K	$333.6K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	1¢	-0.3	$73.2K	$241.7K
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	0¢	-1.8	$73.2K	$19.9K
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	13¢	-1.0	$64.4K	$72.7K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	84¢	+4.0	$53.7K	$35.7K
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	34¢	0.0	$42.9K	$33.9K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	14¢	0.0	$38.9K	$543.6K
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	8¢	0.0	$38.0K	$17.9K