updated 02:14:19 UTC·src:Polymarket Gamma

24h volume

$4.3M

Across 21 live markets

Avg volatility

8.4pp

Average |24h move| in this category

Top movers

Markets with |Δ24h| ≥ 5pp

Large-trade flow

$0.00

0 trades ≥$5k

Source-risk

Markets in active UMA dispute / pending

Resolving <24h

Watch for the settlement print

Market	Prob	Δ24h	Vol 24h	Liq
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	31¢	0.0	$628.7K	$812.6K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	92¢	+17.0	$590.7K	$53.1K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?	99¢	+7.6	$479.6K	$48.1K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	1¢	-0.4	$377.9K	$547.8K
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	1¢	-7.2	$195.3K	$89.3K
Iran full airspace closure by July 24?	1¢	-8.9	$188.3K	$32.2K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	62¢	+8.0	$184.0K	$60.4K
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	22¢	-16.0	$170.2K	$46.3K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	79¢	+14.5	$158.2K	$26.0K
Iran leadership change by July 31?	5¢	+0.4	$157.5K	$58.5K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	3¢	+0.3	$141.7K	$266.7K
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	9¢	0.0	$140.2K	$995.8K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	11¢	0.0	$123.9K	$397.3K
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?	4¢	+1.1	$112.8K	$177.1K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	9¢	-1.3	$111.6K	$173.0K
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	94¢	+82.5	$88.0K	$39.7K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	10¢	-1.0	$87.8K	$786.3K
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	19¢	+4.0	$86.9K	$112.1K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	3¢	-0.1	$86.4K	$37.4K
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?	4¢	-5.1	$85.2K	$96.0K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	16¢	0.0	$80.6K	$81.2K