OtherExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Probability

31¢

-1.0pp

24h

-1.5pp

24h Vol

$511.7K

Liquidity

$333.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

+7.0pp 7d

Apr 17, 2026, 19:00Apr 24, 2026, 18:05

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 6005.9h
LOW
18:06Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6006h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
17:00Price
Probability up 3.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
14:00Price
Probability up 4.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability up 3.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
11:00Price
Probability up 5.0pp
to 33¢
MEDIUM
10:00Price
Probability up 4.0pp
to 33¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability down -5.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability down -5.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability up 3.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability up 3.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability up 4.0pp
to 33¢
MEDIUM
22:00Price
Probability up 4.0pp
to 33¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability up 4.0pp
to 33¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -3.0pp
to 31¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -4.0pp
to 31¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -3.0pp
to 31¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -3.0pp
to 31¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -5.0pp
to 30¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -4.0pp
to 31¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -6.0pp
to 30¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -6.0pp
to 30¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -6.0pp
to 30¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -6.0pp
to 30¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -5.0pp
to 30¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -4.0pp
to 31¢
MEDIUM
3d agoPrice
Probability down -4.0pp
to 28¢
MEDIUM
3d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 29¢
MEDIUM
3d agoPrice
Probability down -4.0pp
to 28¢
MEDIUM
3d agoPrice
Probability down -5.0pp
to 28¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

BUYUP
Worthy-Armpit$1.69@ 58¢
4m ago
BUYREAL MADRID CF
Superficial-Atheist$4.62@ 15¢
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Blaring-Fresco$5.00@ 74¢
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BUYBETBOOM TEAM
Overjoyed-Limo$1.09@ 14¢
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BUYNO
0x9dd9…08bd$5.74@ 96¢
4m ago
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Wary-Machine$3.65@ 73¢
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Wary-Machine$4.88@ 72¢
4m ago
BUYUP
Second-Hand-Barrage$4.87@ 63¢
4m ago
BUYUP
0x8176…709a$1.86@ 81¢
4m ago
BUYDOWN
0xe907…cff6$3.72@ 20¢
4m ago
BUYDOWN
Nice-Prejudice$1.35@ 27¢
4m ago
BUYUP
0x3969…1b7c$4.72@ 59¢
4m ago

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk

End date: Dec 31, 2026
Resolution source
UMA status: n/a
Market type: Binary

No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket