Index

Election Heat Index

Politics + election market activity. US races, party primaries, electoral-college markets, candidate-resignation odds.

Today

28/ 100

Across 12 live markets · 24h volume $1.9M

Move

Volume

Resolution

What's driving this

Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?
PoliticsVol $230.9K
100¢
+19.1pp
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
PoliticsVol $124.0K
53¢
+5.3pp
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
PoliticsVol $110.8K
10¢
+1.1pp
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
PoliticsVol $105.9K
85¢
-1.0pp
Trump out as President by June 30?
PoliticsVol $203.4K
4¢
-0.8pp

How this score is built

score =
  0.5 × 46 (move component)
+ 0.3 × 4 (volume component)
+ 0.2 × 20 (resolution-pressure component)
= 28

Each axis is normalised against a hand-tuned ceiling so scores stay 0-100 and comparable across indexes. The page revalidates every 30 minutes from public Polymarket data — once a persistent snapshot store lands we'll add day-over-day deltas and an archive page.