Index

Election Heat Index

Politics + election market activity. US races, party primaries, electoral-college markets, candidate-resignation odds.

Today

10/ 100

Across 10 live markets · 24h volume $8.8M

Move

Volume

Resolution

What's driving this

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
PoliticsVol $255.4K
11¢
-2.1
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
PoliticsVol $325.3K
0¢
+0.1
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
PoliticsVol $464.4K
1¢
-0.1
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
PoliticsVol $314.8K
1¢
-0.1
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
PoliticsVol $194.1K
1¢
-0.1

How this score is built

score =
  0.5 × 5 (move component)
+ 0.3 × 18 (volume component)
+ 0.2 × 12 (resolution-pressure component)
= 10

Each axis is normalised against a hand-tuned ceiling so scores stay 0-100 and comparable across indexes. The page revalidates every 30 minutes from public Polymarket data — once a persistent snapshot store lands we'll add day-over-day deltas and an archive page.