SportsExpires May 17, 2026
Creator

Will Daniel Berger finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 PGA Championship?

Probability

22¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+9.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$587.29

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 17, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
pgatour.com
Link
pgatour.com
Type
Source not classified
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (42.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
22¢
May 11, 2026, 17:00 UTCMay 15, 2026, 19:56 UTC
updated 19:56:13 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-15T19-56Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 9pp over 24h

    Now 22¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 28h. Spread is extremely wide.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 42.9¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 28 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 17, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 28.1h

    HIGH
  • 19:56Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 28h. Spread is extremely wide.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+9.0pp over the last 24h, now 22¢.

Biggest hourly move: +48.0pp at May 14, 07:00 UTC (to 50¢).

Show top 8 of 27 hourly moves
  • May 14, 18:00 UTC · +46.6pp → 49¢
  • May 14, 17:00 UTC · +46.6pp → 49¢
  • May 14, 13:00 UTC · +47.4pp → 49¢
  • May 14, 10:00 UTC · +46.6pp → 49¢
  • May 14, 09:00 UTC · +48.0pp → 50¢
  • May 14, 08:00 UTC · +48.0pp → 50¢
  • May 14, 07:00 UTC · +48.0pp → 50¢
  • May 14, 05:00 UTC · -47.0pp → 3¢
updated 19:56:13 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 19:56:13 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventPGA Tour: PGA Championship Top 5
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 5 at the 2026 PGA Championship tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not announced by May 23, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

pga championship

Reason

PGA Championship golf major — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Daniel Berger finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 PGA Championship?"?

As of Fri, 15 May 2026 19:56:13 GMT, YES is priced at 22% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +9.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 17, 2026 (2026-05-17T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.pgatour.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.pgatour.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $587.29. Spread between best bid and best ask: 42.9¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket