SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Aug 2, 2026
Creator

Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Rocket Classic?

Probability

25¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

+21.9pp

24h Vol

$5.1K

Liquidity

$73.1K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 28h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Momentum / follow-through

71% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Resolution review required

The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

  • Momentum / follow-throughclear

    71% source confidence on this opportunity row.

  • Resolution-source riskwatch

    45% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Resolution review requiredwatch

    The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
47
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$6k
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$73k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1microstructure_quality_kernelexecution_markout_kernelsemantic_risk_kernel+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Aug 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the listed player who wins the 2026 Rocket Classic tournament
Link
pgatour.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Aug 2, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
25¢
Jul 30, 2026, 19:00 UTCJul 31, 2026, 23:48 UTC
updated 23:48:36 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-07-31T23-48Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 22pp over 24h

    Now 25¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $5.1k traded against $73.1k of visible liquidity (0.07× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 21.9pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 04
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 28h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 28 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live to resolution sensitive
Trust transition

The market is still live, but settlement mechanics are becoming the most important thing to verify.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://www.pgatour.com/

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Settlement state

required

Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.

Current evidence: Near expiry

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Rocket Classic? State: Near expiry — live to resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Rocket Classic? State: live to resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Aug 2, 04:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 28.2h

    HIGH
  • 23:48Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 21.9pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 23:48Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 28h.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+21.9pp over the last 24h, now 25¢.

updated 23:48:36 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 23:48:36 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventPGA Tour: Rocket Classic Winner
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 Rocket Classic tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Rocket Classic tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the Rocket Classic tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by August 9, 2026 at 12:00AM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

pga tour

Reason

PGA Tour golf market — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Rocket Classic?"?

As of Fri, 31 Jul 2026 23:48:36 GMT, YES is priced at 25% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +21.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Aug 2, 2026 (2026-08-02T04:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.pgatour.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.pgatour.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$5.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $73.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket