What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will CA Lanús win on 2026-03-08?"?

As of Sat, 02 May 2026 22:47:01 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -46.0pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Mar 8, 2026. Resolution is determined from https://www.afa.com.ar/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.afa.com.ar/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$52.2K traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $53.6K. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $180.7K.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/arg-lan-rie-2026-03-08-lan renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/arg-lan-rie-2026-03-08-lan/markdown.

UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires Mar 8, 2026

Creator

Will CA Lanús win on 2026-03-08?

Probability

0¢

+0.0pp

24h

-46.0pp

24h Vol

$52.2K

Liquidity

$180.7K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Mar 8, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
afa.com.ar
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-52.9pp 7d

Apr 25, 2026, 23:00May 2, 2026, 22:46

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor

01
Price move
Down 46pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Mar 8, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
afa.com.ar
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

-46.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -53.0pp at 22:46 (to 0¢).

Show top 8 of 33 hourly moves

22:46 · -53.0pp → 0¢
21:00 · -51.5pp → 0¢
19:00 · -27.0pp → 25¢
18:00 · -14.5pp → 37¢
17:00 · -10.0pp → 44¢
11:00 · -5.5pp → 48¢
09:00 · -5.5pp → 48¢
23:00 · -6.0pp → 46¢

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Other

Market Description

In the upcoming game, scheduled for March 8, 2026 If CA Lanús wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket