Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-03-08?
Probability
26¢
1h
-13.0pp
24h
-23.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$94.12
Probability (last 7 days)
-25.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 23pp over 24h
Now 26¢; -13.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 42.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 22:02SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
-24.5pp over the last 24h, now 25¢.
Biggest hourly move: -24.5pp at 22:00 (to 25¢).
Show top 8 of 26 hourly moves
- 22:00 · -24.5pp → 25¢
- 1d ago · +7.5pp → 49¢
- 1d ago · +8.0pp → 50¢
- 1d ago · +7.5pp → 49¢
- 1d ago · +8.0pp → 50¢
- 2d ago · +7.5pp → 49¢
- 2d ago · +10.0pp → 49¢
- 2d ago · +10.0pp → 49¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for March 8, 2026 If CA Tucumán wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (42.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.