Will CA River Plate vs. CA Tucumán end in a draw?
Probability
44¢
1h
-3.0pp
24h
-3.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$154.82
Probability (last 7 days)
+18.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 5 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 44¢; -3.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 46.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
- 5
UMA status: disputed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: disputed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 22:01SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
-4.0pp over the last 24h, now 44¢.
Biggest hourly move: +22.0pp at 4d ago (to 48¢).
Show 8 hourly moves
- 22:00 · -4.0pp → 44¢
- 4d ago · +22.0pp → 48¢
- 4d ago · +22.0pp → 48¢
- 4d ago · +22.0pp → 48¢
- 4d ago · +22.0pp → 48¢
- 4d ago · +22.0pp → 48¢
- 4d ago · +22.0pp → 48¢
- 4d ago · +22.0pp → 48¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for March 8, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Mar 9, 2026
- UMA status
- disputed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: disputed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (46.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.