Will CA Independiente win on 2026-03-07?
Probability
100¢
1h
+5.0pp
24h
+65.5pp
24h Vol
$25.0K
Liquidity
$62.1K
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Mar 7, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+45.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 65pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +5.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved up 65.5pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Mar 7, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:15SignalHIGH
Momentum up
Probability moved up 65.5pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 00:15SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+65.5pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +66.5pp at 00:15 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 30 hourly moves
- 00:15 · +66.5pp → 100¢
- 23:00 · +37.0pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · -17.5pp → 33¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 33¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 33¢
- 4d ago · -20.5pp → 34¢
- 4d ago · -20.5pp → 34¢
- 4d ago · -20.5pp → 34¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for March 7, 2026 If CA Independiente wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
Alerts
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