Agut vs. Maestrelli: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Probability
77¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$96.67
Liquidity
$879.42
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 13, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 77¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $879 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 13, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 152.2h
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 77¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 63¢-1.0
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Francesco Maestrelli
Sports · Vol $2.3K
- 62¢+2.5
Set 1 Winner: Agut vs Maestrelli
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 54¢+1.0
Agut vs. Maestrelli: Match O/U 21.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 47¢0.0
Agut vs. Maestrelli: Match O/U 22.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 42¢-10.0
Agut vs. Maestrelli: Match O/U 23.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 39¢-4.5
Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Francesco Maestrelli: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 42¢-3.5
Set Handicap: Agut (-1.5) vs Maestrelli (+1.5)
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢-1.5
Agut vs. Maestrelli: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Roberto Bautista Agut and Francesco Maestrelli in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
SportsReason
No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Sports".
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Agut vs. Maestrelli: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5"?
As of Thu, 07 May 2026 00:47:03 GMT, YES is priced at 77% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 13, 2026 (2026-05-13T09:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$96.67 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $96.67. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $879.42. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
